Bulls charge into D.C. to take on 14th-ranked Hoyas

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the postseason rapidly approaching, a pair of Big East Conference teams hoping to improve their prospects meet in the nation's capital this morning, as the South Florida Bulls take on the 14th-ranked Georgetown Hoyas.

USF comes in at 13-9 on the year, but the Bulls have charged hard through the bulk of its conference slate, logging a solid 6-3 mark thus far. The team has won four of its last five games, including an 81-78 decision at home over Providence last Sunday. That said, the Bulls have been an entirely different team in Tampa (11-1) than they've been on the road (2-6, 2-8 when you add in a pair of neutral-site affairs). They have split their last four road bouts though, so there is some reason for optimism today.

Georgetown has won 17 of its first 21 games this season, and the team is 7-3 against Big East competition. The Hoyas have won four of their last five as well, with their most recent victory coming in a 58-44 defensive battle against visiting Connecticut on Wednesday. Like USF, Georgetown has been dominant at home, sporting an 11-1 mark to this point, and the club has won two straight in D.C. following a 68-64 setback versus Cincinnati on January 9.

Georgetown has won seven of the previous 10 meetings in the all-time series with South Florida, which includes a 61-55 decision in the Sunshine State last season.

USF had five players score in double figures in the recent win over Providence, and the Bulls needed every point they could muster. Anthony Collins and Hugh Robertson scored 15 points apiece to pace the home team, which got 14 points from Ron Anderson, Jr., 13 from Toarlyn Fitzpatrick and 11 from Augustus Gilchrist. As a team, South Florida shot 50.9 percent from the field and hit 6-of-13 three-point attempts along the way. Both teams took exceptional care of the basketball, combining for only 13 turnovers. Gilchrist (10.7 ppg) is the only active player averaging double digits in the scoring column, and he is the only current starter netting more than 8.7 ppg. As a team, the Bulls are putting up just 62.1 ppg on 44.2 percent field goal efficiency and 70.7 percent from the foul line, while at the same time allowing a mere 59.0 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 40.7 percent overall and 30.8 percent from beyond the arc. A +3.2 rebounding margin also helps the cause.

Hollis Thompson scored 18 points as one of three Hoyas to reach double figures in the recent win over UConn, as the home team made just 21 baskets in the game, but permitted the visitors a paltry 18. Thompson added nine rebounds to his solid stat line, while Henry Sims tallied 13 points despite committing seven of GU's 15 turnovers, and Jason Clark chipped in with 11 points and five boards. The Hoyas scored 11 points at the free-throw line compared to just six for the Huskies, who were simply horrific in going 2-of-20 from beyond the arc. Clark (15.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 39 steals), Thompson (14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Sims (11.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 34 blocks) have been the most consistent performers for Georgetown this season, but guys like Otto Porter (8.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Markel Starks (8.0 ppg) have provided additional support when called upon. Like their counterpart today, and as evidenced in the recent win over UConn, the Hoyas have played exceptional defense this season in allowing just 59.2 ppg behind shooting efforts that come in at 39.4 percent overall and 27.9 percent from downtown. Offensively, the team nets 70.8 ppg in hitting 46.9 percent of its total shots and 36.2 percent of its three-point launches. Add favorable margins in both rebounding (+4.8) and turnovers (+1.4), and it's easy to see why the team is having such a successful season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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