CFB - When a push is not a push

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/23/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Check this out. Florida was a seven- point favorite over Kentucky last Saturday in a crucial SEC East battle. The Gators, who were up 21-10 at the half, looked like a team on their way to victory when they opened a 14-point lead midway through the third quarter.

From then on, Florida's advantage flip-flopped between seven and 14 points until the final seconds of the game when the Wildcats, trailing 45-31, were on the Gators' five-yard line. It looked as if Kentucky would cut the lead to seven, which would save thousands of dollars from all who wagered on the 'Cats plus the seven points. And that's exactly what happened, almost. Quarterback Andre Woodson hit Keenan Burton with a short TD strike and the gamblers were ecstatic.

Wait just one second. The play clock had hit zero and coaches and players alike all zoomed onto the field. Since the playing surface was covered, Kentucky kicker Lones Seiber was not able to attempt the extra point, and Florida won the game by eight, 45-37. More important than the victory however, was the fact that the Gators covered the spread due to the lack of the kick.

Why was that possible, you might ask? Well, two years ago, the NCAA enacted a ruling stating any kick or two-point conversion will not be attempted if said play does not affect the final outcome of the game. In essence, if this game were played in 2005, those folks who wagered on Kentucky would have gotten a push instead of a loss. However, this is 2007: the year a push can become a loss.

BCS MUSINGS

The LSU Tigers pulled one out of their hats in the 30-24 win over Auburn. Everyone who saw this game is still marveling over the Matt Flynn to Demetrius Byrd 22-yard TD connection with seconds remaining, but even if the play had failed, Colt David, more than likely, would have won the game anyway with a 39-yard field goal.

Nevertheless, the win, combined with South Florida's loss to Rutgers, moved the Tigers up to number three in the all-important BCS rankings. Ohio State remains at number one with its seven-point win over Michigan State, but both teams failed to cover the spread as LSU was favored by 10 points, while the Buckeyes were 18.5-point favorites.

Boston College moved to number two on its bye week, but the Eagles won't hold that spot for very long. They take on Virginia Tech in a huge revenge game from last season. The Hokies were embarrassed by BC on Thursday night football, last year, 22-3. It was their first Thursday night loss in 12 games since 1998. For those keeping track of ATS records, V-Tech was 11-1 vs. the spread prior to the Boston College debacle.

Two Pac-10 teams received a ton of love as Arizona State moved up four spots from eighth to fourth, and Oregon passed Oklahoma into fifth position. It will be interesting to see how ASU fares the rest of the way with Cal, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Arizona still on the schedule.

Prior to the start of the season, I predicted the Sun Devils would win their first seven games, but finish up with only three victories in their final five contests. Unless, they're the second coming of the Trojans circa '04-'05, there is no way Dennis Erickson's club goes undefeated. In fact, this week could spell the end of the run, as Cal comes to Tempe off two consecutive defeats. The last time the Golden Bears lost three games in row was back in 2001, the year before Jeff Tedford came to Berkeley.

Oregon has every right to be ranked fifth, but its toughest game of the year is this Saturday when USC visits Eugene. The Ducks have lost three straight to the Trojans by a combined 68 points. However, this will be the first time they are favored vs. Southern Cal since 2001, when they posted a two-point home win. Incidentally, Oregon is 2-5 ATS against USC the last seven meetings.

Oklahoma surprisingly fell to number six after escaping another possible Big 12 road loss. Iowa State kept this one close throughout as the game was tied at seven after three quarters. The Cyclones couldn't stop Oklahoma's ground attack when the game mattered most and lost by 10. Nevertheless, you have to give their defense a lot of credit, holding the Sooners to just 316 total yards as only one other team, Colorado, had been able to keep them under 380.

Sooner fans should have cause for concern, as the passing game was not very effective against what might be the worst secondary in the country. Iowa State had allowed opposing quarterbacks to hit on 72% of their throws prior to last week, and Sam Bradford was only able to connect on 57% for 183 yards and zero touchdowns.

THE NEW TOP 10 AND LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

There's a new number one team in the power rankings as Oklahoma fell a couple of points with its 17-7 win. The West Virginia Mountaineers, who began the season at number seven, have vaulted to the top spot with their 38-13 win over Miss State. The new top 10 looks like this:

1) West Virginia, 103; 2) Oklahoma, 102; 3) USC, 101.5; 4-T) LSU and Oregon, 101; 6) Ohio State, 100.5; 7) Missouri, 100; 8) Florida, 97.5; 9) Boston College, 97 and 10) Texas, 96.5

My overall record stands at 28-33-1 after a 2-6 week, but the time has come for a change and it all starts this Saturday.

WEEK NINE PLAYS

Ball State has had a solid season and not just in its straight up record. The Cardinals are 5-3 on the year, but more importantly, 5-2 ATS. They defeated Western Michigan last week, 27-23, a win that should give them some confidence going into Illinois after getting routed at home by Central Michigan earlier in the month.

Since losing at Ohio back in '05, the Cardinals are 8-4 SU on the road and an absurd 11-1 ATS, with their only failed cover coming by one point to the Chippewas last season. Not only have they fared well in MAC play, they were beaten by just 10 points at Purdue when getting 17, lost by only eight at Michigan when the line was 34 and most recently, almost upset Nebraska when getting 24 big ones.

Illinois is coming off a four-game stretch which included Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan, and it's extremely doubtful Ron Zook's team will be highly motivated to blow away Ball State. In addition, the Illini have run into a brick wall the last two weeks averaging only 270 total yards after averaging over 400 the previous four weeks.

Take Ball State plus the points.

Staying in the Big Ten, Wisconsin is coming off a game they could have won with its eyes closed. The Badgers held Northern Illinois to 11 first-half yards and a grand total of 99 in their 44-3 rout of the Huskies. It was a great way to bounce back from an ugly performance at Penn State the week before. They still might not be where they want to be, but facing Indiana at home will be a great start.

The Hoosiers were pretty lucky to get the cover vs. Penn State last week, as the Nittany Lions failed to score a touchdown on three separate trips inside Indiana's 10-yard line. One thing's for sure in this game: the Hoosiers will not be able to run on Wisconsin. Their last three Big Ten games (not including one against a pathetic Minnesota club) have seen them rush the ball 82 times for 163 yards. The Badgers will be able to contain Kellen Lewis and keep Indiana from scoring more than 14 points.

On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin has rung up 40+ points the last two meetings in this series and should do so again. The Hoosiers' run defense has looked pathetic the last two weeks, giving up a total of 560 yards to Michigan State and Penn State while allowing opposing quarterbacks to hit on 76% of their throws. Not a good combination heading into this matchup with P.J. Hill and Tyler Donovan. The Badgers win in a blowout, 40-14.

Take Wisconsin minus the points.

Hawaii is undefeated but still cannot get any love in the polls. The Warriors are 16th in the AP and 17th in the BCS all because of an extremely easy schedule, and barely getting past San Jose State in overtime two weeks back doesn't help either.

They are in the midst of an insane stretch of just one game in 28 days and that contest is this weekend vs. New Mexico State. The Aggies were left for dead without quarterback Chase Holbrook against Boise State a few weeks back and then lost at Louisiana Tech, 22-21. However, the star QB returned last week to lift the team to a 45-31 win over Idaho.

Look for New Mexico State to match strides with Hawaii, a team that has allowed 72 points in its last two games. Even Utah State put up 37 points against them and those Aggies hadn't scored that many in one game since 2003.

Take New Mexico State plus the points.

Two over/under plays highlight the rest of this week's picks. South Florida looks to bounce back after losing for the first time this season, and must do so against a Connecticut squad that came from behind to defeat Louisville last week.

The Huskies are 6-1 with their only loss coming to Virginia on the road. They have allowed only 89 points the entire season for an average of 13 per game and can score themselves after picking up 36 per game in their first four FBS contests. However, they have averaged less than 20 the last two weeks, and the odds are slim they will score more than 17 against South Florida's defense.

The Bulls might not score more than 17 either against a Connecticut "D" that held high-flying Louisville to only 17 points. True, the game was played in poor weather conditions, but the Cardinals had not scored under 28 in any game the entire season. Two years ago, these two teams met in East Hartford and the final tally that day was 15-10 in favor of the Huskies. Expect a similar total this Saturday.

Take the UNDER.

Virginia, the team that gave Connecticut its only loss, rolls into Raleigh this week to tackle N.C. State. The Wolfpack finally showed signs of life in their 14-point victory over East Carolina, but scoring 34 against the Pirates means nothing when trying to hit paydirt vs. Virginia.

The Cavaliers are giving up an average of 18 in four ACC games and now they get to face the lowest scoring team in the conference. N.C. State is averaging only 14 ppg in its four matchups vs. BCS schools, so it's doubtful the Wolfpack will net more than 17 in this one.

On the other side, Virginia scored in the final minute to defeat Maryland, 18-17, last week in College Park, the second straight week the Cavs were held under 20 points. In addition, they are averaging just 17 per game in four road contests this season. They weren't too effective on the road last year either, averaging only 13 per game.

Take the UNDER.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

Additional sports lines can be found at: www.Sportsbooks.com

To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards.