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07/17/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Louis Oosthuizen has never been in this position, but he sure seems comfortable atop the leaderboard in a major.
The South African, who held the second-round lead, carded a three-under 69 Saturday to complete three rounds of the British Open Championship in the lead at 15-under-par 201.
Oosthuizen claimed his first European Tour title earlier this year, but has never been near the top of the leaderboard in a major championship. The one time he had made the cut in a major before this, the 2008 PGA Championship, Oosthuizen finished in last place.
Paul Casey posted a five-under 67 on the Old Course at St. Andrews Saturday. He finished 54 holes in second at 11-under-par 205.
Martin Kaymer is three strokes further back at minus-eight after shooting a four-under 68 in round three.
Henrik Stenson (67), Alejandro Canizares (71) and Lee Westwood (71) share fourth place at seven-under-par 209.
Tiger Woods, a two-time British Open winner at St. Andrews, shot a one-over 73 and is tied for 18th at minus-three.
World No. 2 Phil Mickelson managed a two-under 70 to move into a share of 26th at two-under-par 214.
Defending champion Stewart Cink carded an even-par 71 and is tied for 38th at minus-one.
They are all chasing Oosthuizen, who was the 54-hole leader twice this year on the European Tour.
Back in March, he led after 54 holes in back-to-back tournaments. In the first event, the Hassan II Golf Trophy, Rhys Davies flew past him for the victory.
However, Oosthuizen came back the next week with a final-round 67 at the Open de Andalucia to earn his first European Tour title.
Oosthuizen tripped to a three-putt bogey on the first and his five-stroke lead to start the round was suddenly three, as Stenson was making a charge.
The 27-year-old Oosthuizen settled in with five straight pars from the second. For the third time in three days, Oosthuizen birdied the par-four seventh. That moved his lead back to two after Casey birdied the seventh ahead of him to get within one.
Casey got to 11-under with a two-putt birdie on No. 9, then Oosthuizen followed with a two-putt birdie of his own to move to minus-13.
No one got any closer on the back nine than Casey did on the seventh and ninth. Oosthuizen parred the first six holes of the back nine to maintain his two-stroke lead.
Finally, on the 16th, Oosthuizen ran home a long birdie effort to push his lead to three.
Meanwhile, Casey failed to make a single birdie on the back nine. He closed with nine straight pars to get in at 11-under.
Oosthuizen drove the green at the last and two-putted for a closing birdie to extend his lead to four strokes.
The South African has won five times on his home tour, the Sunshine Tour, and was victorious for the first time earlier this year on the European Tour.
However, this is uncharted territory in the major championships for Oosthuizen.
NOTES: No one in the top-seven on the leaderboard has won a major and among the top 17, only two-time U.S. Open champion Retief Goosen has won a major championship...Goosen is tied for eighth at minus-five.
<< Polanco contributes big hit in return for Phils
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco made a huge impact Saturday
in his return to the lineup with the Philadelphia Phillies.
The veteran infielder, who was activated off the 15-day disabled list prior
to the game, singled
<< D.C. fails to pick up option on Emilio
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United and striker Luciano Emilio
have parted ways after a brief three-month reunion as United opted not to pick
up its option on the former Major League Soccer MVP.
Emilio returned to the team i
<< Tigers call up Porcello to start back end of DH
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have recalled right-
hander Rick Porcello from Triple-A Toledo to start the second game of a
doubleheader with the Indians Saturday.
Porcello was demoted on June 20 after pi
<< Indians beat Tigers to begin doubleheader
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trevor Crowe's two-out RBI single in the
seventh inning gave Cleveland a 4-3 win over Detroit in the first game of a
doubleheader from Progressive Field.
Fausto Carmona (9-7) went seven-plus inning
Gainey makes Nationwide Tour history >>
Maineville, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Gainey fired a 10-under 62 on Saturday
and extended his lead after three rounds of the inaugural Chiquita Classic.
Gainey finished 54 holes at 24-under 192 and is four strokes clear at TPC
River's
Yankees put Marte on DL with inflamed shoulder >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees placed left-hander
Damaso Marte on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with an inflamed left
shoulder.
Fellow southpaw Boone Logan was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-
Yankees' Burnett leaves with undisclosed injury >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett left
Saturday's game against Tampa Bay with an undisclosed injury.
Burnett allowed an RBI single to Carlos Pena in the third inning and was
immediately visited
Le Toux sinks Toronto with late PK >>
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sebastien Le Toux's penalty kick in the 94th
minute helped the Philadelphia Union claim a dramatic 2-1 win over Toronto FC
at PPL Park on Saturday.
Toronto equalized nine minutes from time through Chad Bar
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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