Oswalt to make debut as red-hot Phils head to Washington

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second straight season, the Philadelphia Phillies have acquired one of the top available pitchers prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. The timing couldn't be better, as the club has used a season-high winning streak to make up ground in the National League East.

The second-place Phillies hope newly-acquired Roy Oswalt can pitch them to a ninth straight victory this evening in the opener of a three-game series with the hosting Washington Nationals.

Philadelphia was a bigger winner at last year's deadline, getting Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians for a handful of prospects. Lee went 7-4 with a 3.39 earned run average in 12 regular-season starts with the Phillies, helping them reach the World Series for a second straight season.

Lee was traded this offseason to Seattle for prospects after the Phils nabbed Roy Halladay from Toronto in a deal. But with Jaime Moyer injured, Joe Blanton struggling and little depth in the rotation this year, the Phillies sent pitcher J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Houston Astros on Thursday for Oswalt, who will team with Halladay and Cole Hamels at the top of Philadelphia's rotation.

"It's exciting for sure," Oswalt told MLB.com. "I think it works out for both of us. Houston's getting good prospects and another pitcher, and I'm getting to go to a great team. I'm happy for both sides. From the very beginning, I said I wouldn't accept it unless it worked out for both of us, and I think it worked out."

The right-handed Oswalt is just 6-12 on the season despite a 3.42 ERA, but was averaging just 2.26 runs of support in his 20 starts, Houston's offense was limited to two runs or less in 12 of those outings and scored just four runs over Oswalt's last six starts with the Astros.

Oswalt, who had to waive a no-trade clause to make the deal happen, leaves Houston having gone 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA in 303 games (291 starts) over nine-plus seasons, leaving him one victory shy of tying Joe Niekro for most wins in franchise history.

The 32-year-old is 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA lifetime versus the Nats, who pounded him for four runs on four hits and three walks in a loss on May 31. Oswalt's frustration got the better of him that night, and he was ejected after just 2 1/3 innings of work for his shortest outing of the season.

Oswalt joins a Phillies club that has won eight in a row to get within 2 1/2 games of the first-place Braves. Philadelphia's bullpen blew a ninth-inning lead in Thursday's finale of a three-game series with Arizona, but Wilson Valdez hit the Phils to victory with a game-winning RBI single in the 11th inning of a 3-2 triumph.

Philadelphia hits the road for six straight after winning all seven games of its homestand. It marked its first perfect homestand of at least six games since Aug. 6-12, 1991.

The Nationals gave the Phillies some help on Thursday when they knocked off the Braves, 5-3, to take two of three in the series and win for the fourth time in 12 games. Their reward is a matchup with Oswalt.

"[Oswalt's] a power pitcher. A lot of us have faced him plenty," Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman said. "It's not like a new guy we've ever faced before, but he's been one of the better pitchers in the league the last 10 years and he comes right at you."

Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn, who could see himself traded prior to Saturday's deadline, both homered for Washington and Scott Olsen got the win after allowing three runs -- two earned -- over six innings in his return from the disabled list.

Matt Capps notched his 26th save for Washington, but was then traded after the game to the Twins. In return, the Nationals received Wilson Ramos, one of the top catching prospects in baseball, and minor league pitcher Joe Testa.

Craig Stammen draws the unfortunate task of opposing Oswalt in his Phillies debut. The right-hander has struggled against Philadelphia in two career starts -- both this year -- allowing 11 runs in 6 1/3 total innings without a decision. The bulk of that damage came on April 14, when he gave up seven runs over just 1 1/3 frames.

Stammen is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA this year and winless in four starts since a victory on June 29. The 26-year-old has gone 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA in that time and got a no-decision versus Milwaukee on Friday after allowing three runs on five hits over five innings.

The Phillies have won four of six over Washington this year, taking two of three at Nationals Park from April 5-8. Philadelphia is 22-5 over its last 27 meetings versus Washington and won seven of nine in D.C. last year.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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